Chapter 720: Aliyev’s Choice (2)
Aliyev was moving under elaborate calculations.
The battle with Armenia was a necessary card to quell calls for democracy and maintain power.
This was because the Kazakh royal family would also be in great trouble if war broke out, so it would naturally come forward to resolve the situation.
Park Jong-il was making his own diagnosis by listing the number of cases.
“Aliyev decided we’d help if the conflict with Armenia escalated.”
“We can’t help him even if we want to. Russia will get involved if we do.”
“What would Azerbaijanis think of the royal family if there was a war and it doesn’t reach out to help? Their favor will turn into hatred.”
As the people of Azerbaijan’s demand was met when the country became a federal state of Kazakhstan, Aliyev now was playing with fire to divert the public’s attention toward his regime from the royal family. A royal family that was becoming more and more popular was just a nuisance to his administration.
“He’s pretty smart. I was going to wait for a while, but he’s making a provocation first.”
“It’s a guess, but so far, that’s the closest we’ve got.”
Youngho knew that Aliyev would never be easy.
He would not just watch the royal family take away his power and glory.
Azerbaijanis and Armenians had deep grudges and hatred toward each other.
Armenia, a Christian Orthodox church, and Azerbaijan, which were overwhelmingly Muslim, were like opposite poles.
The Kazakh royal family was brought in-between the two people in this situation, and Aliyev was trying to take advantage of it.
The foreign exchange crisis in Azerbaijan, one of the oil-exporting countries, had many factors which included defense spending.
It was pouring 7 percent of its gross national production income into defense spending. Last year alone, it spent more than 4.5 billion dollars on arms expansion.
National defense spending was growing 7-8 percent annually, but it increased its defense spending by 37 percent last year alone, which shocked the world.
This seemed to fit the puzzle roughly.
“I think Aliyev is a step ahead of us?”
Aliyev was already preparing step by step for the war against Armenia.
And at the same time, he joined the Kingdom of Kazakhstan at the request of the people. Perhaps joining the federation was Aliyev’s winning shot.
“He’s an old politician, maybe, but he’s misreading the situation.”
“…”
“He didn’t count Russia. And I don’t think he put our royal family’s relationship with Russia in the calculations.”
Armenia and Azerbaijan had so far been fighting for disputed areas where the majority of their own people resided. But the war Aliyev was planning was to take part in Armenia’s territory regardless of the nationality of residents.
It was a situation that would lead to an all-out war.
If an all-out war took place, Russia would have to intervene automatically.
This was because Armenia and Russia had separate military agreements independent of the Commonwealth of Independent States Alliance.
If it was a war in which Russia intervened, the Kazakh royal family could not intervene no matter how much Azerbaijanis asked for help as the security of Kazakhstan would be at stake.
Kazakhstan would also lose too much as it would have to give up the numerous joint ventures in Russia and the development of Siberia, Arctic shipping routes and military cooperation against Chinese aggression.
It should never happen.
“We have to think of the worst case, right?”
“Should I reveal his slush funds?”
“We should consider that, too, along with other ways. He’s the one who’ll turn the Caucasus into a sea of fire if he maintains his power for longer.”
“Let’s find out more about the weaknesses of the Presidential Palace. We also have to be prepared for bloodshed.”
Jong-il glistened his eyes. However, Youngho wanted to avoid the situation where he would have to physically drag down the head of the federal government as much as possible.
“Just wait. I’ve got a good idea.”
***
If five more years were given, Kazakhstan would not only be on the threshold of an advanced country but also have a strong defense capability that no one could match.
Until then, no variables should occur inside Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
Likewise, if a local war took place in Caucasus, Kazakhstan’s economic development would be put on hold.
This would sabotage Youngho’s goal, which he could not allow to happen.
Azerbaijan was a federal country, but its status as a sovereign state remained intact, so Youngho could not be involved in foreign affairs and national defense.
Of course, some pressure could be exerted with the royal authority, but there was no clear evidence yet to pressure Aliyev.
Thinking of external influence as a means of deterring Aliyev’s actions, he decided to ask for help from a strong nation, Russia.
He immediately called Putin.
-Is that true?
“Our intelligence service has found that it’s very likely.”
Putin, who was listening to Youngho’s explanation, also sighed deeply.
Russia was just getting out of the economic crisis, but if a local war broke out in the Caucasus, the economy would face a dark cloud again.
There was still a long way to go before it could get out of the economic crisis, and involvement in the Caucasus conflict would lose foreign investors in Russia.
-What are you going to do, Duke?
“I also can’t do only so much. No diplomatic or defense involvement is allowed for the royal family, and there is no clear evidence, either. That’s why I’m asking you for help.”
Putin, who had been lost in thought for a while, gave the answer right away.
-I’ll have to invite the President of Armenia to Russia or I’ll have to move myself.
He judged that showing his active exchange and solid relations with Armenia was the way to prevent Aliyev’s misjudgment.
“If you do that, I’ll find a way to block Azerbaijan.”
If Armenia and Russia held a sudden meeting, Aliyev would have no choice but to falter.
Then Youngho would come forward and warn Aliyev. Since Aliyev knew the relationship between Youngho and Putin better than anyone else, he would understand.
-I don’t see Aliyev’s behavior as a sudden measure. It’s about time the two countries burst the festering wound. They have deep bad blood.
“You mean it’s a war that’s bound to happen, if not now.”
-You can think of it as a wrong legacy of the Soviet Union. I’m ashamed to say it, but I have no choice but to admit that Russia was wrong.
“Can’t you correct that right now? We need to find a way to fundamentally solve these problems once and for all, or it will continue to bother us.”
-First of all, we’ll have to drive a wedge to prevent misjudgment. Then why don’t you and I intervene and persuade the two countries?
Afraid of Russia’s economic trouble due to the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Putin was ready to comply with Youngho’s suggestion.
“I’ll do my best to resolve this if you do that.”
-The Armenian president will be visiting Moscow soon. And I will write to Aliyev the result of the Armenian president’s visit.
***
Putin acted quickly. The Armenian President and his party visited Moscow less than a week after he talked with Youngho.
It was hard to find a precedent for a country’s president to visit so quickly without prior coordination.
Putin was aware that the current situation was that serious.
When the Armenian president visited Moscow, the movement in Baku also became serious. It was an unexpected variable for Aliyev.
Putin’s personal letter was subsequently delivered to him, which stunned him.
He was shocked to find out that Russia knew every detail of his moves.
He had thought that if Azerbaijan became a federal country of Kazakhstan, Russia would not get involved in its domestic matters, but that was not the case.
It was less than two days after Putin’s letter was received that Aliyev visited the royal palace in the Serbian Ranch.
He must have been worried deeply with his close associates, but he could not come to any conclusion, so he finally came to Youngho.
“Your Highness, Russia is deeply involved in the affairs of our country and Armenia. He even sent me a warning letter. He’s interfering with the internal affairs of our country.”
Aliyev’s weighty appearance was nowhere to be seen. He seemed flustered and embarrassed by Putin’s personal letter.
“What do you mean Putin sent you a warning letter? How dare he interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign state? Apart from that, oppressing Azerbaijan is a way of ridiculing the Kingdom of Kazakhstan. Why on earth did Putin send such a letter?”
Youngho acted as if he had no idea and made a gesture of agitation.
“He said Russia would not stay still if Azerbaijan invaded Armenia.”
“Did you declare war against Armenia? Otherwise, why would he…”
Youngho did not know exactly what the letter was about, but it probably was a letter of threat, judging by Putin’s personality.
Azerbaijan’s provocation to Armenia was a direct threat to Russia’s economy. Putin would not have used a diplomatic language in such a situation.
The look on Aliyev’s face was enough to predict that Putin would have done so.
“A declaration of war? No, that can’t happen.”
“Then did Armenia provoke us?”
“…”
Aliyev could not continue since Armenia had been still all along.
“If not, make a strong protest against Russia. How can he intimidate a sovereign state without any reason? I’ll have to complain to Putin. We’ll have to say that we’ll reconsider economic cooperation with Russia.”
When Youngho said he would stop economic cooperation with Russia, Aliyev hastily stopped him, realizing that things were getting bigger than he thought.
The idea of targeting Armenia was now out of his mind.
This was because it seemed that Putin would not stand if the business cooperation with the Kazakh royal family in Russia failed.